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Irish Information Security Forum

War in Ukraine: Implications for the Black Sea

Ref Source: Inskit Group, Recorded Future

 

Russia’s war against Ukraine has significant implications for the Black Sea.

 

Bordering both Russia and Ukraine, the sea has become a volatile setting for naval attacks, drifting maritime mines, and errant missile attacks on commercial vessels. The sea has historically been an important thoroughfare for international commerce, especially energy and food exports from countries bordering the sea, but the war has brought shipping to a standstill, affecting international food prices and food security in impoverished countries.


NATO naval activity in the sea, once routine, has paused as NATO strives to avoid escalation. The threat — particularly from mines — to safety of navigation in the sea, the drop in exports of food and energy products, and the geopolitical implications of the war are already having far-reaching effects in terms of stagnant commercial shipping, increased food and energy prices, and a changed naval landscape in this strategic international waterway.


Key Judgments

  • The safety of navigation and commerce in the Black Sea has been severely harmed by Russia’s war against Ukraine, as evidenced by attacks on merchant ships atsea, reports of drifting mines, and a drastic decline in shipping.
  • The decrease in Black Sea maritime traffic will have farreaching and continuing international effects on food and energy prices.
  • The war is likely to change the region’s naval landscape, with NATO likely decreasing naval operations in the area as long as hostilities continue and likely in the immediate aftermath of the war as well.

 

This report describes the ongoing situation in the Black Sea in the context of Russia’s war on Ukraine. It may be of interest to organizations conducting business in Eastern Europe and in countries bordering the Black Sea, clients in the maritime industry, and government organizations focused on defense, international security, intelligence, or international development. This analysis relies on open sources, primarily from mainstream news media such as Russian and Ukrainian news and maritime industry news. It also relies on analyses by the United Nations and the World Bank, along with NATO and US Department of Defense press statements

 

Download Report

black sea threat analysis Ukraine war

 

 

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